E-Fuels: A techno-economic assessment of European domestic production and imports towards 2050 – Update
Report Nº 4/24: Concawe and Aramco have jointly commissioned this study, aiming to conduct a techno-environmental (Part 1) and economic (Part 2) analysis of different e-fuels pathways produced in different regions of the world (North, Centre, and South of Europe, as well as Middle East and North Africa) in 2020, 2030 and 2050, with assessments of sensitivities to multiple key techno-economic parameters.
The e-fuels pathways included in the scope of this study are: e-hydrogen (liquefied and compressed), e-methane (liquefied and compressed), e-methanol, e-polyoxymethylene dimethyl ethers (abbreviated as OME3-5), e-methanol to gasoline, e-methanol to kerosene, e-ammonia, and e-Fischer-Tropsch kerosene/diesel (low temperature reaction). The e-hydrogen is considered a final fuel but also as a feedstock for producing other e-fuels.
The study also includes:
- An assessment of stand-alone units versus e-plants integrated with oil refineries
- A comparison of e-fuels production costs versus fossil fuels / biofuels / e-fuels produced from nuclear electricity,
- An assessment of the impact of intermittency and seasonality of renewable energy supply on storage requirements, synthesis plant sizing and production costs,
- An analysis of the context of e-fuels in the future in Europe (potential demand, CAPEX, renewable electricity potential, land requirement, feedstocks requirements)
- A deep dive into the safety and environmental considerations, societal acceptance, barriers to deployment and regulation
The e-fuels techno-environmental assessment (Part 1) has been developed by Concawe and Aramco, using the Sphera GaBi platform as modelling tool, and the e-fuels economical and context assessment (Part 2) has been conducted by the consultants LBST and E4tech, under the supervision of Concawe and Aramco. All the assumptions are fully aligned between both parts of the study.
For the base cases, it is assumed that the e-fuel plant produces 1 million t of e-diesel equivalent1 per year. Hence, the nameplate capacities of hydrogen generation via water electrolysis and downstream processes depends on the characteristics of regional renewable electricity supply.