Publication
07 Sep 2018
Impact Analysis of Mass EV Adoption and Low Carbon Intensity Fuels Scenarios – Full Report
The impacts of three scenarios in the European light duty vehicle market to 2050 have been analysed, versus a European Commission Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, as follows:
– High EV scenario representing mass EV adoption to ~90% BEV parc by 2050;
– Low Carbon Fuels scenario representing use of significant proportions of biofuels and eFuels;
– Alternative scenario representing use of more PHEVs together with increased use of bio- and eFuels.
– High EV scenario representing mass EV adoption to ~90% BEV parc by 2050;
– Low Carbon Fuels scenario representing use of significant proportions of biofuels and eFuels;
– Alternative scenario representing use of more PHEVs together with increased use of bio- and eFuels.
• Total parc life cycle GHG emissions reduce to less than 13% of 2015 value by 2050 for all three scenarios, and the annual parc total costs to the end user are similar for the High EV and Low Carbon Fuels scenarios;
• In the High EV scenario the cost of EV charging infrastructure alone could reach €30 Billion p.a. by 2040, and acumulative cost of ~€630 Billion by 2050, versus ~€326 Billion for the Low Carbon Fuels scenario;
• There are potential risks associated with the availability of key resources and increased battery production rates required to serve a complete transition to BEVs by 2040;
• In addition, major shifts to electrified transport in the High EV scenario would certainly require alternative approaches to tax revenue generation, due to substantial (up to 66 €Billion p.a.) reductions in net fiscal revenue;
• The modelling suggests an optimal solution from the perspective of cost-effective GHG reduction may lie somewhere in-between the scenarios evaluated;
• Due to the rapid rate of change in this area, there are significant uncertainties on the future evolution of battery technology and costs and on the infrastructure requirements to support a wholesale shift to BEVs.
• In the High EV scenario the cost of EV charging infrastructure alone could reach €30 Billion p.a. by 2040, and acumulative cost of ~€630 Billion by 2050, versus ~€326 Billion for the Low Carbon Fuels scenario;
• There are potential risks associated with the availability of key resources and increased battery production rates required to serve a complete transition to BEVs by 2040;
• In addition, major shifts to electrified transport in the High EV scenario would certainly require alternative approaches to tax revenue generation, due to substantial (up to 66 €Billion p.a.) reductions in net fiscal revenue;
• The modelling suggests an optimal solution from the perspective of cost-effective GHG reduction may lie somewhere in-between the scenarios evaluated;
• Due to the rapid rate of change in this area, there are significant uncertainties on the future evolution of battery technology and costs and on the infrastructure requirements to support a wholesale shift to BEVs.