Renewable electricity demand-supply assessment for EU process industries for 2030

Report Nº 6/24: VITO/EnergyVille was commissioned to do a quantitative assessment of renewable electricity (RES-E) supply and demand projections for process and fuel manufacturing industries for 2030. The Industry Electrification scenario uses green electricity for hydrogen production, with a focus on EU-generated hydrogen, accounting for two-thirds of the total, while assuming constrained growth in nuclear electricity production and the absence of carbon capture and storage.

The EU's 2030 climate targets necessitate robust electrification, projecting a 30% increase in total electricity generation’s requirement. More prominently, it necessitates a remarkable 2.3-fold rise in RES-E, which requires an average annual addition of 100 GW of renewable capacity from 2024 to 2030.

The 2023 draft updated NECPs (national energy and climate plans) show increased ambition but still leave a 20% RES-E gap, resulting in a shortage of 250 TWh of renewable electricity at EU level. Belgium, France, Luxembourg, Poland, and Slovakia face gaps exceeding 50% in meeting demand with local RES-E, highlighting the need for increased imports of electricity, renewable fuels or alternative solutions.

Examining total electricity, the EU level shows minimal, or no shortages based on the latest NECPs that incorporate "additional measures". However, at country level, substantial regional gaps exist, ranging from 15% to 35% of expected electricity needs. Notably, increased electricity imports may be necessary, especially for Germany (imports x 6), Poland (imports x 4), Belgium (imports x 2.5), Romania (imports x 1.8), and the Netherlands (imports x 1.7). Strategic measures, including network expansion, innovation, and diversified energy sources, are vital to fortify energy security and achieve sustainability goals.

Combining the assessments of renewable and total electricity, a categorization framework is established for all countries. Key indicators are the RES-E gap and variation in net annual balance. Recommendations include combined focus on import and increased renewables for the Netherlands, Poland, and Romania, import focus for Belgium and Germany, export infrastructure boost for Spain, France, Portugal, and Sweden.