Oil refining in the EU in 2020, with perspectives to 2030

Report no. 1/13: In the two decades to 2030, the EU refining industry will face significant changes in product demand, both in absolute terms and with regard to the relative demand for gasoline and diesel. The introduction of increasingly stringent product quality specifications, notably regarding the sulphur content of marine fuels, will impose additional challenges on the ability of the industry to satisfy both demand and quality requirements.

This report assesses the possible impact of these changes on EU refining, focusing on the estimated capital investment requirements in the sector as well as the expected trends in energy consumption and CO₂ emissions through to 2030. Sensitivity cases are included to explore potential alternative scenarios for product demand and quality around the 2020 base scenario.